This is a rather risky factor affecting the electricity supply assurance, if the wind power projects (the majority of the private investors) do not comply with the expected schedule.
In the 2016-2020 period, EVN has ensured sufficient electricity supply for the needs of socio-economic development and people’s daily life and created a premise to ensure electricity supply for the coming years. The results of the criteria on the power source, the power grid, the targets of business and customer service… were all achieved and exceeded the targets assigned by the Party and the Government.
At the Conference on summarizing the work in 2020 and implementing the 2021 missions of the Ministry of Industry and Trade recently, the Prime Minister emphasized: “5 years from now with this growth momentum and the chances of developing our resources, there is no longer power shortage”.
Recently, following the direction of the Government and the ministries and sectors on electricity assurance in the period 2021 – 2025, EVN has continuously updated the implementation of power source projects, power grids, power demand and the updated calculation on the use of the national power supply – demand balance. Therefore, the solutions on ensuring the targets of sufficient power supply for socio-economic development have been proposed to the Government and the National Assembly.
In the period 2021 – 2025, EVN forecasts 2 scenarios for power load demand:
Basic solution: power demand growth is going to be about 8.6%/year;
Advanced solution (with the scenario of strong recovery after COVID-19, and considering the possibility of a wave of investment shift of FDI enterprises into Vietnam): growth rate is reaching 9.4%/year.
According to EVN, with these two growth scenarios, the system will ensure sufficient power supply for the entire period of 2021 – 2025. However, in the method statement of high load, to fully meet the load demand, the system will need more oil power sources with an output of ~4.7 billion kWh in 2023 and ~3.8 billion kWh by 2024.
Although enough power is ensured in the upcoming period, the Electricity industry in general and EVN in particular will have to face many difficulties and challenges. Specifically, if the gas sources from Block B and Ca Voi Xanh enter slowly, it may pose a risk of power shortage in 2025 and the following years.
In addition, it is hard to predict the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the future load demand, which depends on disease control in Vietnam as well as around the world.
The policy of developing LNG gas-fired power sources is not yet clear, making it difficult for LNG projects to prepare for investment and at risk of falling behind schedule. Most of the coal and gas thermal power sources assigned to be invested by the BOT/IPP units have been delayed compared to the adjusted Power Master Plan VII.
Moreover, in recent years, the Prime Minister has approved additional planning of new wind power projects with an additional scale of 7,000MW (operating in the period of 2021-2025).
Accordingly, the total output of electricity produced from wind power sources increased about 10 billion kWh/year compared to the previous report. This is also a rather risky factor affecting the power supply assurance if the wind power projects (the majority of the private investors) do not comply with the expected schedule.
To proactively ensure sufficient electricity supply for socio-economic development and the demand of the consumers, the relevant ministries, branches and units need to ensure the progress of power source projects in the period 2021 – 2025; complete the mechanisms and policies to accelerate the progress of gas sources of Block B, Ca Voi Xanh and the synchronous power source projects at O Mon Power Centers, Gas Turbines in the Central region, and Dung Quat Power Center; complete the mechanisms, policies and legal framework for the negotiation of a set of contracts for BOT power projects.
At the same time, the Government should soon issue long-term policies to develop renewable energy sources after the FIT price mechanism expires; promote the implementation of power demand side management (DSM) programs as well as the programs on economical and efficient use of energy…
Source: Cafef.vn
